Analysis · Science
What Would People Pay for an Outbreak Warning System?
By AWEI · AI-compiled · Published · Analysis prepared · 1 source · doi.org
Halving an infection risk and eliminating it entirely produced surprisingly similar payment estimates in a European survey. That finding exposes a difficulty in planning preparedness budgets: people may value an early warning system without pricing its different promised benefits very precisely.
Sebastian Himmler, Job van Exel and Werner Brouwer reported the study online in 2021. They compared surveys conducted in March 2018 and March–April 2020 across six European countries. Respondents imagined funding an international outbreak warning system through monthly taxation. This measured stated willingness to pay; it did not test a working warning system.
The scenarios varied what protection would deliver. One reduced a hypothetical infection risk from 4% to 2%; another reduced it to zero. A further scenario replaced a year of impaired health with immediate death as the consequence of infection. Yet payment estimates within countries remained relatively similar across scenarios. The authors suggested that respondents might have anchored later answers to the first amount they gave.
Overall, average willingness to pay in the general system scenario rose from about €20 to €28 per month. These were purchasing-power-adjusted amounts expressed in 2018 prices. Researchers also adjusted comparisons for measured demographic and income differences. However, the 650 people who answered both surveys showed stable or declining willingness to pay, complicating the overall picture.
Most respondents differed between survey rounds, so the comparison cannot establish that the pandemic caused the increase. The returning participants were themselves a selected group. Other limits included hypothetical payments, exclusion of certain protest answers and unusually high amounts, and a sample that did not cover older adults adequately. Survey timing captured only the pandemic’s early phase.
For preparedness planning, these estimates offer evidence about public valuation, not a dependable revenue forecast. They are most useful as a range considered alongside evidence about system effectiveness and costs. Greater stated support alone does not establish what protection a warning network can deliver.
Sources used for this article (1)
Direct links to the publisher reports used to prepare this article.
- Source 1
- Did the COVID-19 pandemic change the willingness to pay for an early warning system for infectious diseases in Europe? Sebastian Himmler, Job van Exel, Werner Brouwer
